于不确定性与重要度的改进DSmT健康状态评估

针对目前健康状态评估准确度不高、客观性不强的问题,引入评估指标的不确定性和重要度,提出一种基于不确定性和重要度的改进DSmT（Dezert Smarandache theory）健康状态评估方法.首先,引入指标不确定性和重要度作为加权因子,能够得到比较合理的指标权重；其次,采用模糊综合评判方法,通过构造三角形梯形隶属度函数确定各指标的广义基本信度赋值；然后,基于指标权重对广义基本信度赋值进行改进DSmT融合,得到各指标的广义基本信度赋值加权融合后的评估结果；最后,以某供电系统为例进行了实例验证,结果表明该方法能够赋予各评估指标较合理的权重,健康状态评估结果与系统实际运行状态相符.      

某级压气机叶盘系统失谐振动关键因素研究

基于某级压气机叶片盘扇区，建立考虑非线性榫接触叶片盘有限元模型，应用提出的自由界面子结构-固定界面预应力模态综合超单元近似分析方法，并基于提出的围绕实验与有限元分析拟合出线性表达式的失谐参数识别方法，探究失谐关键因素对于叶盘系统振动的影响.结果表明，非线性榫接触不可忽略，提出的超单元法精度达到3.07%，满足要求.同时也表明，叶片平均频率、叶盘刚度比与频率转向对于失谐叶盘系统振动幅值、共振频率及应变能等参数均有一定影响.      

顾及不确定性分析的多数投票 SAR 影像变化检测

合成孔径雷达（Synthetic Aperture Radar，SAR）影像变化检测是遥感领域的一个重要研究方向。文章以投票法（Majority Voting，MV）为基础，提出一种全新的顾及不确定性分析的SAR影像变化检测方法（Uncertainty Analysis-based MV，UAMV）。首先选取三组典型的差分影像生成算法，生成三组互补的差分影像。然后使用模糊C均值聚类估算每组差分影像的关于变化类和未变化类的模糊隶属度函数。最后用模糊集合和信息熵理论优化MV，构建顾及不确定性分析的多数投票法，并用所构建方法融合三组差分影像的模糊隶属度函数，生成变化检测图。为验证文章方法的有效性，通过三组真实SAR影像数据进行实验分析。实验结果表明：1）通过用信息熵分析MV融合过程中的不确定性，能够显著提高MV的变化检测性能；2）与7种现有相关算法相比，UAMV方法能够取得更优的变化检测结果。该研究为SAR影像变化检测提供一种新的思路和方法。     

Adaptive sliding mode control of spacecraft attitude-orbit dynamics on SE(3)

In this paper, to solve the problem of parameters uncertainty in spacecraft tracking control, an adaptive controller based on sliding mode is proposed for the relative spacecraft attitude-orbit dynamics on the Lie group SE(3). The dynamic equations of relative attitude orbit error for two spacecraft are established in the framework of Lie group SE(3). Considering the uncertainty of spacecraft parameters, a formal decomposition of known and unknown parameters, the state variables and control variables is firstly made in the original system. An online estimator is designed to evaluate the unknown parameters. A sliding mode controller is developed to actuate the spacecraft to track the target spacecraft. Then a Lyapunov function of tracking error and parameters estimated error is designed to prove the stability of the closed-loop system. Finally, the simulation results and analysis are presented to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.     

A robust Poisson multi-Bernoulli filter for multi-target tracking based on arithmetic average fusion

The coalescence and missed detection are two key challenges in Multi-Target Tracking (MTT). To balance the tracking accuracy and real-time performance, the existing Random Finite Set (RFS) based filters are generally difficult to handle the above problems simultaneously, such as the Track-Oriented marginal Multi-Bernoulli/Poisson (TOMB/P) and Measurement-Oriented marginal Multi-Bernoulli/Poisson (MOMB/P) filters. Based on the Arithmetic Average (AA) fusion rule, this paper proposes a novel fusion framework for the Poisson Multi-Bernoulli (PMB) filter, which integrates both the advantages of the TOMB/P filter in dealing with missed detection and the advantages of the MOMB/P filter in dealing with coalescence. In order to fuse the different PMB distributions, the Bernoulli components in different Multi-Bernoulli (MB) distributions are associated with each other by Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) minimization. Moreover, an adaptive AA fusion rule is designed on the basis of the exponential fusion weights, which utilizes the TOMB/P and MOMB/P updates to solve these difficulties in MTT. Finally, by comparing with the TOMB/P and MOMB/P filters, the performance of the proposed filter in terms of accuracy and efficiency is demonstrated in three challenging scenarios.     

民用飞机平尾载荷的不确定性及全局灵敏度分析

针对飞行载荷计算输入数据的随机不确定性会导致载荷计算结果波动的现象，采用Monte Carlo模拟方法和基于方差的全局灵敏度分析方法对民用飞机急剧俯仰机动随机平尾载荷进行不确定性及全局灵敏度分析。具体分析了飞机气动特性和重心的不确定性对迎角贡献平尾载荷、升降舵偏度贡献平尾载荷及平尾总载荷的影响，进一步通过全局灵敏度分析找出影响平尾载荷计算结果的主要因素。不确定性分析结果表明：气动特性和重心的不确定性导致迎角贡献平尾载荷的波动程度很大。灵敏度分析结果表明：1）升降舵偏度贡献平尾载荷只受升降舵效率的影响；2）迎角贡献平尾载荷主要受无尾飞机零迎角俯仰力矩系数和重心的影响；3）平尾总载荷受升降舵效率的影响最大，受无尾飞机零迎角俯仰力矩系数及重心的影响次之。此外也验证了方法的有效性，对提高飞行载荷的计算精度有一定的指导意义。     

球轴承接触角测量仪的动态不确定度

考虑球轴承接触角测量仪的自身动态特性、轴承外圈的试验转速、试验加载力对测量仪测量精度的影响，建立了测量仪的动态不确定度计算模型。针对小样本试验测试结果，采用灰色理论的方法评价了球轴承接触角测量结果的不确定度。基于不确定度的分离原理，分离出测量仪的自身动态特性、外圈转速、试验加载力对测量不确定度的影响规律，建立了接触角测量的动态不确定度计算模型，并通过实际算例验证了模型。建立的测量仪动态不确定度计算模型可用于预测不同工况下的接触角测量不确定度，有助于及时对测量仪进行相应的校准，以提高接触角测量结果的精度。